Robert Jenrick unexpectedly pulled ahead this week after the first knockout round of MP voting. The former migration Minister secured an impressive 28 votes, narrowly edging out the bookies’ favourite, ex-Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch (22 votes), and former Tory Party Chairman James Cleverly (21 votes) in what is turning into a fiercely competitive - yet still painfully drawn-out - contest to replace Rishi Sunak.

Jenrick’s surprise lead comes as the field now narrows to just five candidates, with former Home Secretary Priti Patel having been knocked out after receiving a dismal 14 votes. Despite her high profile, Patel was outpolled by former Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride (16 votes) and ex-Security Minister Tom Tugendhat (17 votes). This victory puts Jenrick in an unexpectedly strong position heading into the next round of voting, though Badenoch and Cleverly are still regarded by many as the only ‘serious’ contenders in the contest.

Nevertheless, next week’s vote will be pivotal, as the candidates scramble to win over Patel’s supporters and secure their place in the final four where they will be able to pitch to members during this year’s Party conference. Only after that will MPs whittle the list down to the two candidates who the wider party membership will chose between. We won’t know the winner until 2 November – days before the US presidential election.

Over the next few days, Tory MPs will no doubt start wondering if they’ve backed the right horse (and whether they should set their phones to ‘do not disturb’). Will Cleverly, the ever-cunning strategist, convince his peers that he’s more than just the safe pair of hands? Will Badenoch, seemingly the choice of the grassroots, finally manage to get into that elusive final two?

With everything on the line and such a limited number of MPs left to sway, the battle is set. One thing is certain, though, in the relentless carousel that is Tory politics, no lead is ever safe, and next week could see this race take yet another unexpected turn. Jenrick may start the week on top; but there’s absolutely no guarantee he’ll carry his lead through the next two months of the contest.

(Photo provided by The Telegraph)