This time last year, the Government secured a gargantuan 172 seat majority. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke of a decade in power. Now? Polls suggest Nigel Farage would be installed behind the famous black door if an election were held tomorrow.

A large-scale backbench rebellion on welfare reforms, which were designed to save £5bn a year by 2029, forced an embarrassing Government retreat, losing any savings the reforms would have made.

Tuesday’s welfare debacle was followed on Wednesday by the bizarre spectacle of Chancellor Rachel Reeves sobbing in the House of Commons whilst Starmer appeared to duck questions on her future at PMQs. It sparked an immediate reaction in bond markets amid speculation about the safety of her position, further undermining the Government’s fiscal credibility.

Surely, it couldn’t get any worse on Thursday? It began well, as the Government’s NHS plan landed well. But Thursday evening brought news of an upstart political party threatening to take Labour on from the left, led by former Labour MPs Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn, both of whom retain large grassroots followings. While reports suggest they’ve already fallen out – and Starmer won’t miss the hard left any incumbent MPs who follow them - in an era of multi party politics, tiny shifts in voting behaviour have the ability to decide scores of parliamentary seats. Splitters are a risk, even if they’re a bit inept.

How can Starmer move forward?

For a start, long-running gripes about No 10 must finally be addressed. Political Secretary Claire Reynolds has received much of the blame, as has Starmer’s Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney. Starmer himself will have to front up and spend more time connecting with the Parliamentary Labour Party. A cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks is also seen as likely. While Reeves does appear safe, a fundamental shift in overall direction appears inevitable - away from talk of £22bn black holes and towards optimism and radicalism.

Labour Growth Group Chair Chris Curtis summed this up eloquently in yesterday’s Telegraph: “There was a comforting illusion within some Labour circles that simply having ‘grown-ups back in charge’ would be enough. A little sensible management here, some incremental tinkering there, would surely bring about revival. That comforting fiction has not merely collided with reality, it has been obliterated by it… Radical transformation is no longer optional; it is existential.”

The Tories have historically been seen as the natural party of government, and this week reminded us why. The Labour Party succeeds when it is able to meet the public’s desire for change. If Starmer continues to fail to deliver, it is no longer unimaginable the next election will leave both Labour and the Tories on the scrap heap.

(Photo provided by politico)