With every passing day, there seems to be another defection, or a local council by-election win, to bolster Reform’s ranks. While Kemi Badenoch appears to be just holding what’s left of the Conservative Party’s support together with around 17% in the polls, how long can it last?

Yesterday saw former Conservative Party Chairman Jake Berry become the latest name to join Reform’s ever-growing roster. He joins a sizeable group of former Conservative MPs who have already jumped ship such as Ross Thomson, a former Scottish Conservative, and David Jones, a former Welsh Secretary. So is this the death of the Conservative in slow motion? Possibly.

So far, Badenoch has managed to stop any of her 120 MPs from moving along the green benches to join Farage but TWFW would be surprised if there wasn’t a lot of work being put in by Reform to have conversations with some of the more disgruntled of the Conservative troops.

One glimmer of hope for Badenoch in an otherwise fairly bleak outlook is Farage does seem to have issues keeping his MPs in line – and is wary a steady flow of defections will just make Reform look like a re-branded Conservative Party.

Reform MP James McMurdock only recently resigned the party whip following reports around loans he took out under a Covid support scheme. Rupert Lowe MP also had a very public falling out with Farage early in the Parliament, which has seen him leave Reform and instead found his own political party – Restore Britain. So with Farage and his parliamentary enforcer Lee Anderson seemingly unable to keep the parliamentary party together, Badenoch has a chance. But that chance will fade fast if the Conservatives don’t begin to produce policy ideas which the public can support.

With a Labour Government already in political trouble following a rough few weeks and some bad economic numbers for the Chancellor and Reform unable to hold 5 MPs together, there is an opportunity for the Leader of the Opposition to regain some momentum. But she needs her MPs to stick with her which, given the history of Conservative MPs and their love of removing leaders, means she is rapidly running out of time.

(Photo provided by  New Statesman)