Conservatives prepare for life on the other side
26 July 2024
| by Field Team
Following the Conservatives’ dismal General Election performance, they now must choose a new leader - their sixth in eight and a half years - to lead them in Opposition.
The winner of the leadership election will be tasked with the small tasks of rejuvenating a wounded and depleted parliamentary party, identifying what went wrong in the campaign and learning why after 14 years in Government they were consigned to their worst ever defeat. All while holding a rampant Keir Starmer to account.
Nominations close on Monday, with candidates requiring the support of at least 10 MPs get on the ballot. MPs will whittle down the field to four nominees in September, all of whom will progress to party conference to make their case to party members. Following the conference hustings, MPs will narrow the field to two candidates, before party members select the winning. The announcement will be made on November 2.
Four candidates have already declared they are running. James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Robert Jenrick and Mel Stride all say they have submitted 10 names to party officials.
Cleverly is one of the more experienced MPs left in the party, having been Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary as well as party chairman. Cleverly is presenting himself as the unifying candidate in his early campaign material and is someone popular within moderate Conservative circles.
Tugendhat is someone popular among moderate One Nation Conservatives but has leaned right in his opening pitch. Foreign affairs are Tugendhat’s speciality, having chaired the Foreign Affairs Select Committee and serving as Minister for Security. Having unsuccessfully run for leader in 2022, Tugendhat is looking to expand his support on the right, recently promising to “consider” leaving the ECHR if elected.
Stride, a relatively obscure ex work and pensions secretary and uber Rishi Sunak-loyalist, is the race outsider. Most famous for (near daily) shameless media rounds during the election campaign, has significant steps to take in building support before he can hope to reach the front of the race.
As TWFW writes, Jenrick is the leading nominated candidate of the right. The former Immigration Minister’s campaign is being led by backbencher Danny Kruger, who noted Jenrick “was best placed to win back voters who deserted the party for Reform at the general election”.
However, Jenrick is unlikely to have the right to himself. Kemi Badenoch is the pre-contest favourite and is sure to have her 10 nominees lined up. As the front runner, expect her to confirm entry to the contest late on – either in the Sunday papers or just before nominations close on Monday. She is largely seen as a darling of the right and has impressed some in the party with her no-nonsense approach on divisive social issues and identity politics. She is also palatable to many in the centre ground, with grandee Michael Gove one of her strongest advocates.
Former Home Secretaries Priti Patel and Suella Braverman may seek to enter the contest. Both face scepticism they can summon enough names to get on the ballot, despite having hardline approaches to immigration which may appeal to Reform UK converters.
So far, Badenoch is the bookies favourite, with Jenrick and Tugendhat following behind. Whoever wins will have to embark on a serious political soul-searching mission, repair the party’s finances and unify a very fractured party before any thought is given to future elections.
(Photo provided by @Conservatives on X)