
Could Rachel Reeves really be sacked? Probably not any time soon.
17 January 2025
| by Field Team
It’s no secret that Rachel Reeves is under pressure.
Once seen as the Osborne to Starmer’s Cameron - the political tactician helping to guide the Starmer project behind the scenes - Reeves’ reputation has been repeatedly dented since entering Number 11 in July. First, she upset pensioners by means-testing the Winter Fuel Payment. Then her mega-Budget in October angered farmers and businesses with a huge £40 billion in tax increases.
Worse still, the enormous tax rises have still failed to convince the markets the government can pay for its spending plans, causing the cost of Government borrowing to surge to near 30-year highs. All whilst inflation remains above target and growth is still – viewed generously – anaemic.
This has led some to question whether Reeves is the right person to hold the keys to the Treasury.
But sacking Reeves is unlikely any time soon. First, Starmer is inextricably linked to Reeves’ policy approach. In the absence of a clear economic vision of his own, Starmer is stuck in lockstep with Reeves’ focus on growth, desire to take the tough decisions and relentless hammering of the so-called “£22bn black hole” inheritance, whether the policy prescription is working or note. Walking away now is not an option.
Secondly, removing a Chancellor is fundamentally different to removing any other member of the Government. It is seen as an admission that the entire direction of Government is wrong. Removing Reeves would look like another sign of Government dysfunction, especially when paired with the earlier sacking of Sue Gray as Starmer’s Chief of Staff.
Finally, and perhaps most immediately, it currently does not make political sense for Starmer to sack Reeves. Whilst Reeves has not had a great start, neither has Starmer, as evidenced by the rapid decline in his personal approval ratings. At the moment, Reeves is taking most of the political heat, with Starmer being repeatedly pressured about her position. Sure, this is not ideal for the Prime Minister. But, for Starmer, it is currently much better to be fielding questions about Reeves’ days being numbered than his own.