Since Labour swept to power in July, we’ve heard a lot about the £22 billion black hole they claim was left by the last Conservative government. To underline the point, Chancellor Rachel Reeves took a risk in cutting the winter fuel allowance from all but the poorest pensioners as a demonstration of how this will be a government not afraid to make the tough choices to get the public finances back on the straight and narrow.

The risk hasn’t yet paid off – Reeves and the Prime Minister instead face claims they could end up talking the economy into recession by overdoing the doom and gloom. The Chancellor’s speech to conference today is a vital opportunity to tweak the message and point to the way to the sunlit uplands where the decade of national renewal will kick in. At midday, we will find out if it could work.

It’s important to note that Reeves' speech is very unlikely to announce any new policy given we will be getting a full Budget on October 30th. That means this will be a very narrative-heavy speech – expect to get some backstory from Britain’s first woman Chancellor and for those playing conference bingo, keep track of the number of times she uses the word “prize” as she outlines the reward for tough decisions.

As ever with the Treasury, the small print will be worth watching. While it has been trailed that there will be no return to austerity, it won’t all be great news for government departments. On the media round this morning, Reeves said: “There won’t be a return to austerity, there will be real terms increases to government spending in this parliament… What I’m saying is there will not be real terms cuts to government spending, but the detailed department-by-department spending will be negotiated.”

How to square this circle will be at the core of October’s Budget, the initial one-year spending review due at the same time and the bigger review planned for the spring.

Reeves has refused to rule out a council tax revaluation, and many see changes to Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax as pretty nailed on. But rather than that detail, today we will likely hear more about Labour’s pre-election pledge to not raise taxes on working people despite questions remaining about where money for the recently negotiated pay rises across health and transport will be coming from.

Delegates will also be trying to force a non-binding vote today (with rumours this has been pushed to Wednesday by the Leadership) on the winter fuel allowance, which would cause further headaches for a government already struggling to control the narrative.

Amidst a weekend of stories and speculation about donations, free clothes, photographers and Taylor Swift tickets this speech is a critical opportunity for Reeves to reboot the narrative and remember they really did win a landslide less than three months ago.