Even at the height of UKIP mania in 2015, Nigel Farage never managed to win more than a handful of council seats around the country – much less a Commons by-election without a Conservative defection, control of county councils and lead a group of five MPs. This latest outfit seems to have learnt the lessons from the past.

For Kemi Badenoch and her team, this has come at a high cost. At the time TWFW writes, the Conservative Party has lost more than 300 seats - nearly two in three it set out to defend, with results so far showing a 26-point dip from May 2021. The electorate have still not forgiven the party for the tumultuous last years of Tory rule and are voting with their feet for a different voice of opposition.

But this is not a clear-cut power shift, instead these local election results tell another story; the rise of the multi-party system. Labour, Reform, Conservative, Lib Dem and the Greens have all taken a strong share of the vote.

For Labour, this vote split has helped them to retain three mayoralties in North Tyneside, Doncaster and the West of England – albeit by slim majorities of 444, 698 and 5,949 votes respectively. The Runcorn and Helsby by-election loss to Reform by just six votes has raised alarm bells in Labour HQ over campaign management, as the narrow loss demonstrates that this should have been a winnable seat.

Remarkably, while every Labour MP was encouraged to make an appearance in the constituency Sir Keir Starmer was nowhere to be seen. Given Starmer’s recent personal polling this was a clear strategic decision but it doesn’t bode well for the Government if the Prime Minister could not be deployed to find just six votes.

Starmer has vowed to go “further and faster” on plans for change in reaction to these results, but TWFW suggests this may not be quite the messaging an electorate dissatisfied with Labour changes to PIP, NIC and Inheritance Tax are looking for.