More than 1,500 people packed into Hall 1 of Birmingham International Convention Centre, many clad in the lanyards and t-shirts doled out by the campaign teams this week. By the time Tom Tugendhat strode onto the stage to open proceedings, most had been waiting for well over two hours.

In short, the winners in the room were clear: James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch. The top three now appear locked in, with Robert Jenrick already ahead amongst MPs, and Tugendhat falling behind.

Cleverly capped a successful week with a rousing address on the power of optimism in politics, why he was proud to be a Conservative and why he was the candidate in the race with the experience and track record. He opened with an apology for recent Tory behaviour and made a commitment to unite the party while being a happy warrior in the fight against Keir Starmer’s Labour. He won the largest standing ovation and leaves Birmingham with momentum for the first time.

Badenoch put a difficult week behind her. Fresh from criticism over a joke that civil servants should be jailed for obstructing ministerial decisions, she put a fundamental “re-programming” of the British state at the heart of her offer. Badenoch insisted she would use a period in Opposition and her background as an engineer to plan a new way forward for Britain, all while lacing her speech with commitments fight a culture war over gender and net zero. The speech connected with the audience and was given a hugely warm reception.

By contrast, Tugendhat and Jenrick fell flat. Tugendhat drew on his military record to position himself as the one candidate who could lead in the national interest, promising a cap to migration and to rebuild trust as a one nation leader. Jenrick set out a five point plan to secure borders, take a stand on net zero, get Britain building, deliver a smaller state and stand up for Britain’s national identity. To many it sounded more than a little like the Reform platform promoted by Nigel Farage. Both won ovations in the hall but they were polite rather than enthused.

What does it tell us? Jenrick is still in front with MPs: even if he lost momentum today it remains likely he will finish in the top two and make it to the final round. By contrast, to many this now looks a three-horse race: Tugendhat has to persuade MPs why he should stay in the race.

The sprint is on for second place. Cleverly stalled in the last round among MPs, picking up no extra votes and finishing third. His team has secured new MP pledges during conference and must turn momentum in the hall into real votes from colleagues. Badenoch will be looking behind at Cleverly as much as ahead towards Jenrick. Only two can go forward to the final member vote.

From a policy perspective, Badenoch and Jenrick both outlined scepticism about net zero and the plans to reach it by 2050. While neither disavowed the overall goal, both protested Ed Miliband’s “mad” plans to achieve it. If one of them does win on November 2, it opens the door to a break in the cross-party consensus on how and when – and perhaps even if – to eliminate the rest of the UK’s carbon emissions. As the new Government presses ahead with plans to create GB Energy and investments loom in new nuclear and carbon capture technology, the Conservative leadership race could break a consensus seen by many in industry as essential to securing long term investment in green industries.

(Photo provided by X)