A Westminster Meltdown, Jenrick’s Big Day

Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform was not a carefully choreographed political pivot. It was forced, fast and faintly chaotic, and that is precisely why it matters.

Brutally sacked by Kemi Badenoch after she said she had “irrefutable evidence” he was planning to defect, Jenrick was left with a split-second choice: disappear quietly or go out swinging. If he wanted to go, would Farage still take him when the political leverage of surprise had been lost? What followed was a swirl of rumours and hurried logistics that dominated Westminster for the day.

In the end, of course, he went. At a packed press conference, Jenrick branded the Conservatives “rotten” and accused them of learning nothing from defeat. “They aren’t sorry, they don’t get it, they haven’t changed, they won’t change, they can’t change,” he said, a withering verdict as he became Reform’s sixth sitting MP. But what does it mean?

Earlier in the week, Nadhim Zahawi’s jump to Reform had been treated as the big scoop. Jenrick’s defection instantly eclipses it, delivering Farage a bigger and more disruptive prize, reinforcing Reform’s sense of momentum. At the same time, there are now more chiefs in the camp: two ex-Cabinet ministers taking space alongside Reform’s insurgents. How do Richard Tice and Zia Yousef respond to the arrival of proper heavyweights? How does Farage work with someone in Jenrick who has been shameless in his pursuit of No10?

For Badenoch, yesterday was meant to project authority. Of itself, it did: she won a tactical victory by disrupting the timing. But the Tories are still on track to finish fourth or fifth in Scotland and Wales, and perhaps third at best in England in May. That may no longer detonate her leadership with her main rival vanquished, but ceasing to be a national party risks Tory relevance draining away.

For Reform, Jenrick is both an asset and liability. He brings experience, media fluency and governing credibility. But as ex-Tories pile in, the “Tory 2.0” charge grows louder. Is Reform an insurgent force, or a refuge for political veterans chasing one last return to favour? A new deadline of the local elections before “no more defections” buys time but demonstrates the problem. If Jenrick also turns out to be the next ex-Reform MP it could trigger the civil war which bursts the Farage balloon.

A much-trailed Labour defector could yet rebalance that picture and prove Reform’s realigning credentials. Until then, Jenrick’s defection is proof momentum, attention, and confidence now sit firmly with Farage, even as the delicate act of constructing a new party from scratch edges upwards.