Another Week, Another Crisis

The past few days have sharpened an increasingly unavoidable conclusion: this Government has lost control. Two episodes – a messy attempt by No.10 to spike the guns of potential leadership challengers and a last-minute U-turn of its central Budget tax plan – exposed a centre that is struggling to function, piling on further pressure at the worst possible moment.

First came the No.10 briefing row. It began when allies of the Prime Minister attempted to project strength by signalling Starmer was ready to face down any would-be challengers and was firmly in control of his top team, whilst also implying that Health Secretary Wes Streeting was on manoeuvres. What followed was a sharp slap-down from Streeting, perhaps Labour’s best communicator, damning criticism for the PM from his own MPs and rapid row-backs from Downing Street. A move intended to pre-empt talk of leadership challenge and kneecap Streeting instead highlighted the weakness of centre and emboldened a prominent potential challenger.

Today’s Budget episode has only underlined the impression the Government is out of its depth. After weeks of groundwork and solemn briefings pointing towards a manifesto-breaking rise in income tax rates, that core proposal has apparently been abruptly abandoned. Reeves and Starmer had signalled an income tax rise repeatedly, briefed journalists over and over, sent the policy to the OBR for scoring, and allowed MPs to believe it was likely to form the centrepiece of the fiscal event – only to then rip it up with just 12 days to go. 

What remains is an improvised search for alternative revenue raisers and the now-familiar sight of major policy being rewritten on the fly. The official line is economic forecasts have got meaningfully better – that Reeves needs to find closer to £20bn in new tax as opposed to the more than £30bn which made the first income tax hike in 50 years necessary – but even if this is borne out on Budget Day the sense of chaos is much harder to fix.

It has become almost impossible to see episodes such as these as isolated, embarrassing incidents. They are symptoms of something more dangerous. As the traditionally-friendly Guardian warns this week, No10 is simply not being run in a way that can sustain a modern government. Some have suggested Government’s main failure has been its inability to effectively communicate – and there are undoubtedly problems in this area. But it is clear the issues run much deeper than that.

Labour MPs see a pattern of indecision, miscommunication and leadership failure that has taken root, and many are losing faith in the PM. They see a Prime Minister, a Downing Street operation and Chancellor who can no longer set out a plan, or implement it, or persuade the media, the public, or even their own side that they are in control. It’s hard for a communications team to communicate when there is no story to tell, no vision for what the country might look like.

Once MPs begin to believe that the centre cannot function, the fall of a leader stops being speculation and starts becoming a political calculation. Will Starmer survive this latest mess? Yes. Labour has few mechanisms to remove him as party leader and he retains a vast majority in the Commons. Is there a way forward toward the next General Election as leader? That’s a much harder question: he still has to raise huge amounts of tax on November 26, still faces a dire set of results in the May elections and still leads a party that has a simple question. Is Keir Starmer up to the job of Prime Minister?