Burnham vs Starmer, it begins

It is not every day that a by-election ends up with a turnout rivalling most general elections and sets the scene for a Prime Minister’s downfall, but Makerfield has managed it.

Andy Burnham’s victory in the early hours of this morning was far more than just a win for the party of government. With 24,927 votes, 55% of the total and a majority of 9,231 over Reform, Labour’s newest MP has returned to Westminster in the most unsubtle way possible: by winning the seat vacated specifically for him, bucking the trend of Labour’s declining vote share, and immediately becoming the man most likely to end Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Reform came second, but not close enough to make this the moment Nigel Farage wanted. Restore Britain’s 3,111 votes did not help, and neither did Reform’s candidate in Robert Kenyon. The small Lib Dem and Green totals suggest many voters decided this was not a moment for five-party politics, but instead a moment to stop Reform and, possibly, start removing Starmer.

The immediate fallout and political manoeuvring is stark. Starmer congratulated Burnham online but did not go to Makerfield - a not-so-subtle snub to his impending rival. Burnham used his victory speech to call this Labour’s “final chance to change”, followed quickly by the launch of a campaign-style website ahead of his victory rally.

Meanwhile, images of the Prime Minister leaving by the back entrance gave the day exactly the level of symbolism of a leader under pressure and unwilling to face scrutiny.

This was only the first hurdle for Burnham however. The new Makerfield MP now needs to gather the support of 81 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Wes Streeting, though largely expected to capitulate to Burnham if offered a Great Office of State, is for now still waiting in the wings. Labour must also defend the Greater Manchester mayoralty, triggered by Burnham’s vacancy, with an election expected later this summer - potentially the first obstacle in Burnham’s premiership.

The direction of travel for British politics has become quite clear and it certainly seems as though there is now little that can be done to stop it. Makerfield was supposed to choose an MP but it may have just chosen the UK's next Prime Minister.

(Photo provided by the BBC)