Buying votes and borrowing time

This was very much a Budget aimed at voters’ hearts and minds. Burnham’s “everyday fixes” Budget sought to recognise the pressure voters are under and shift some of that burden onto already unpopular figures in their eyes: banks, landlords and the energy industry. Taking from banks to help with bills is easy to grasp and difficult to oppose, even if the rebate only softens January’s expected energy price rise.

Beyond the headline, many of the harder choices remain unresolved though. Decisions on defence, public services and reform have been pushed into next year’s Spending Review, while several of the more ambitious announcements will take years to arrive. That gives ministers breathing room now but leaves the fiscal outlook increasingly dependent on growth and borrowing costs going their way. It also increasingly pins weight on to Burnham’s much awaited 10 Year Plan (ie. Labour’s next election manifesto).

The political timetable is not much easier either. Living standards are expected to fall next year, leaving households feeling worse off in the spring before they begin to feel better. That makes talk of an early election harder to fathom, however encouraging Burnham and his team finds the immediate reaction to the Budget. On top of that, while Burnham has won back much of Labour’s left, he still needs to persuade those on the right that Labour understands the pressures they face.

The morning after the Budget may have been won, but the bigger test is whether Burnham can translate a popular headline into a recovery voters actually feel.