Catastrophe in Caerphilly

By-elections to the Welsh Senedd are rare and usually don't draw much attention from outside Wales. However, on Thursday, the Caerphilly by-election bucked this trend, being seen as a test ahead of the Welsh elections in May.

With polling predicting a Reform win, Plaid Cymru coming in second, and Labour’s vote share completely collapsing, all of Westminster waited for the results with bated breath. The impact of this is not to be underestimated. Caerphilly is in the south Welsh valleys, deep in Labour’s heartland, which has mainly been coloured red on the electoral map for the past century in Westminster elections.

On the night, with a high turnout of 50%, it was Plaid who came through to win, securing over 47% of the vote. Reform, so certain of their odds that they even prepared a victory party, came second with 36%. The fact that none of the Conservatives, Greens, or Lib Dems received more than 2% of the vote each perhaps gives us an idea of the scale of tactical voting employed in Caerphilly. This was also borne out from reports on the ground, with Labour campaigners saying large numbers of their voters were lending votes to Plaid.

Indeed, this is the polarising effect that Nigel Farage has. Data shows Reform is very successful at getting people out to vote who wouldn’t normally, but conversely, this election shows that it may also motivate others to come out in force against the party. Such tactical voting on a national scale will make things very volatile come the big set of Welsh, Scottish and local elections next year, let alone the next general election.

What about Labour? Well, it was nothing short of a complete catastrophe; its vote share fell a whopping 34% to just 11% in one of its safest areas. While it is too easy to over-interpret results in one by-elections, it is clear the anger many feel after the party’s long-held reign in the Senedd and its first 16 months in Westminster.

Alarm bells will be ringing at Labour HQ, seeking answers for the scale of this defeat deep in Labour’s backyard and who is to blame for it. The Prime Minister, having just rebuffed questions about his leadership at conference, may need to dust off his talking points once more.