Crunch time

Next Thursday’s local elections are no longer just a test of potholes, bin collections and council tax. They are shaping up as the first full ballot-box verdict on Sir Keir Starmer’s Government, and the signs are grim for the Prime Minister.

More than 5,000 English council seats across 136 councils are up for grabs, alongside devolved parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales. The PM approaches the ballot box with Labour running third nationally and as the most unpopular resident of No 10 ever - we’ve just a week to wait to find out if he’s run out of road.

With so many elections, this week’s Field View tracks the key races to watch:

English councils

Labour enters the final week of the campaign with expectations being managed downwards. Recent polling points to heavy losses, with projections suggesting seven days out the party could lose between 50% to 70% of the 2,557 seats it's defending, equating to around 1,900 councillors. Depending on how you count the numbers, they’ve already lost about 360 since the last election to defections,  resignations and by-elections - they hold 2,196 going into Thursday.

It’s not just Labour in trouble. While Kemi Badenoch has been doing better in the Commons, in the polls the Conservatives are yet to find bottom: They could also lose two-thirds of what they hold. The Liberal Democrats will be hoping to largely hold steady, possibly picking up places like Cambridge if the Labour collapse spreads into affluent, high education areas.

At the same time, both Reform and the Greens are targeting breakthrough results across England, reinforcing the sense that British politics is continuing to move towards a more complex, five-party system. Reform has high hopes of winning councils across the country - eying majorities from Sunderland to Norfolk - to prove it still has momentum towards power despite drifting poll ratings.

Five party politics will leave some places a mess - Birmingham looks likely to be almost evenly split, raising the possibility it could take weeks to form a council.

London

The capital might be the difference between survival and defenestration for Starmer. Beat expectations and Labour might pile up enough votes to cling to second in the projected national share of votes. That would also mean holding on to traditional strongholds - but this looks likely to happen only because Labour’s ground game is better and more experienced than insurgent parties.

If expectations are right - or worse - Labour looks at risk of shipping control across the city. It won 21 of the 32 boroughs last time but confronts the loss of Hackney, Camden, Islington and others. A really bad night could even see places like Lambeth or Southwark slip to the Greens.

With so many Labour members living in London, setbacks there count double against the PM.

Scotland and Wales

If it looks bad in England, in the devolved nations, it looks worse. In Scotland, the SNP is expected to remain the largest party in Holyrood and may be in touching distance of an improbable majority. Labour hoped to win 18 months ago but could slump into third place - inevitably costing Scottish leader Anar Sarwar his job and triggering a new angry attack on Starmer.

Labour will lose control of Wales for the first time in a century: they are destined to finish third or worse in a new proportional system. Plaid Cymru look likely to win out, but Reform could again spring a surprise as the new system may throw up odd results.

For Starmer, the danger is obvious. A bad night can be spun. A full collapse cannot. If Labour is pushed backwards in Scotland, Wales, and England, squeezed by the Greens in urban areas and Reform in towns once assumed safe, the question will not be whether voters are sending a message. It will be whether anyone is left in No.10 capable of hearing it.