Four cities, five weeks

Four cities, five weeks. Countless speeches and policy discussions, many washed down with a heady mix of beer, warm white wine and G&T. But as MPs reconvene in the Commons, and British politics continues to adjust to its current multi-party reality, what have the conference season jamborees revealed?

Defensively, both Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch are in a better position than when the Commons broke for conference recess. Starmer has bought time and space from the double disasters of Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson, and seen off an insurgency from Andy Burnham – leaving the Greater Manchester Mayor to rue the hubris of his “King in the North” moniker. The Gaza peace will – might – ease his pressure from the left. 

Meanwhile, Badenoch has found her voice: For the first time, perhaps since Boris Johnson’s Government collapsed in July 2022, the Tory Party has an argument to make about making deep cuts to public spending in order to afford reforms such as the pledge to axe Stamp Duty. Against an insurgent Reform, both remain far from having a rosy future but, for now, better is better. Put £5 on there not being a Labour or Tory leadership contest this side of Christmas, at least.

As usual, the Liberal Democrats are cruising beneath the swell. With (very) little to disagree with the Government on and holding seats of no immediate interest to the other main parties, Ed Davey finishes the season exactly where he started: at the helm of a party which has the opportunity to play a role after historic success in last year’s election and yet mostly carping from the sidelines about Reform. Did anyone notice the Lib Dem reshuffle during Labour’s conference? You’re not alone.

And the big turquoise elephant in the room? Marching on. Reform’s autumn has not been without bumps: Whether committing to re-opening the immigration status of people with a permanent right to remain or a vaccine sceptic on the conference stage there have been openings for critics. What they have not done – not even close – is change the fundamentals. Nigel Farage has a substantial, sustained lead in the polls and a clear path towards success at the important local and devolved elections in May.

It remains an unknown where Reform might find a ceiling in public support. If they are there already, in the low to mid 30 points, sustaining it will be a challenge – the risk is they have peaked too early. A poll rating of about 33% is enough to win power but only if their votes are spread very efficiently, as Labour managed in 2024.

In any event, the answer to those questions remains far away. As we look to an Autumn with a critically important Budget at its heart, the range of possibilities in 2029 is enormous. Labour could win outright again. Reform could make an unprecedented surge from five seats to the winning post of 326 MPs. The country could face two coalition choices: a Lab/Lib option against a Ref/Con one. Any or all of the current party leaders could be long gone.

For businesses, it has to be a spread bet: the biggest risk is not having a network across the new multi-party reality.