From doorsteps to newsfeeds

It’s not every day a by-election has the power to decide who the next occupant of Downing Street might be, but that’s what’s happening in Makerfield where Andy Burnham is continuing his march to Westminster in order to unseat his leader. Given the stakes, the parties are throwing everything at this - yes, in person, but potentially more importantly, online.

This campaign is (probably) a shootout between Labour’s well-known Andy Burnham and Reform’s newcomer Robert Kenyon. Reform are throwing everything at Burnham in the hope that something sticks. There is also an interesting loophole for the parties to take advantage of, which means that online or physical materials that refer to national issues and don’t reference their local candidate or the by-election are exempt from the campaign spending limit of around £180,000. In a General Election this doesn’t really matter as national spending limits apply too. But it means in this by-election there are huge amounts of cash being piled into different pages.

For example, Reform are currently running ads on Facebook relating to the grooming gangs scandal which went up at the start of this week and has already reached over 250,000 people whilst costing around £400, an ad saying that Keir Starmer is “finished” as Prime Minister and encouraging sign ups to a petition if people want him to resign in a clear data harvesting tactic which has cost just under 5,000 and then the North West Labour Party are promoting general ads relating to the boost that Labour has given pensioners in a clear effort to win over older votes - this has been running since Monday and has already been seen by 125,000 people whilst spending around £200. Whilst none of these are not specifically targeted at Makerfield, it is clear that is the audience they’re looking to persuade.

Why is it only probably a Labour vs Reform shootout? Because Rupert Lowe’s Restore is attempting to win with an almost entirely digital campaign. While Restore are on the doors, they have no data: they are knocking blind and seeing who they find. Labour will have detailed profiles on pretty much every household in Makerfield and Reform have just won there in the locals and will have a decent sense which streets their vote lives on.

This has been true before but never to this extent. One off by-elections aren’t supposed to be about choosing a Prime Minister. It’s the best test case ever for the reach, power and return on investment from digital communications. If Reform lose it will be because Burnham is a huge national brand reaching for No10 - but it may also be because Restore cannibalised a chunk of their vote online.

And if it works for tiny political parties with no effective national reach on the ground and within the constraints of tight election spending laws, it will work for businesses wanting to grab eyeballs as well.

Either way, Makerfield may come to be remembered as the by-election that demonstrated a simple truth about modern politics: while votes are still counted in ballot boxes, campaigns are increasingly won and lost in newsfeeds.