Gorton Goes Green

The Gorton and Denton by-election has delivered a political shock far beyond its Manchester boundaries. In one of Labour’s safest seats, the party slumped to third place behind the Greens and Reform UK, raising fresh questions about the authority of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Only 19 months ago Labour won here with 50.8% of the vote and a majority exceeding 13,000. This time its vote share halved, despite slightly higher turnout. The Green Party surged to 40.7%, while Reform UK secured just under 29%.

Excluding 2024’s unusual Rochdale contest, it is the first modern Westminster by-election in which neither Labour nor the Conservatives placed in the top two. Together, the Greens and Reform captured nearly 70% of the vote. In a teary statement to the media, new Green MP Hannah Spencer said there “is no longer such thing as a safe seat” - a pointed assessment given the scale of Labour’s previous dominance here.

The Greens consolidated younger, urban and Muslim voters, foregrounding Gaza and cost-of-living concerns. The platform was a traditional left-wing populist one, publicly endorsed by Jeremy Corbyn. It was not focused on the environment as the Greens might have done in the past - and it worked.

While Reform failed to meet their own sky high expectations, it’s not hard to see a strong performance in white, working-class areas. Gorton is not core territory for Nigel Farage and he still came home with 29% of the vote.

The defeat strikes at Labour’s strategic claim to be the sole credible vehicle for defeating Reform; here, it was the Greens who did so decisively.

For many on Labour’s left, the result has the feel of a “told you so” moment. Some argue the outcome might have been different had Andy Burnham been permitted to stand, and the decision to block his candidacy has deepened internal unease. At the same time, the party’s ideological direction is once again under scrutiny, with former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner swiftly out of the blocks this morning urging Labour to “wake up” and be “braver” in response to the growing threat from the Greens.

With May’s local and devolved elections approaching, Labour now faces pressure from Reform in the Midlands and North, and from the Greens in metropolitan strongholds - particularly in London. Another electoral setback could prove existential for the Starmer project.