Is this the end of Nigel Farage?

Every few years, Westminster declares Nigel Farage politically finished. Every few years, he returns, usually with a pint in one hand and another political campaign in the other.

This week has felt different. Resigning as MP for Clacton before parliamentary investigations into his finances could conclude was a move that left many scratching their heads.

Farage has framed his latest move as a battle between "the people" and "the establishment". From his perspective, the by-election is not about declarations of interest or donor transparency, but about allowing the voters of Clacton to pass judgment before Westminster can.

His opponents, however, have adopted an altogether different strategy. Rather than giving Farage the contest he was hoping for, Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens have all declined to contest the Clacton by-election, deciding that the best way to deny Farage the attention he craves is not to provide one.

It means, to quote the Chancellor in one of her final interventions, Farage will spend a good chunk of his summer arguing with a bin. Count Binface looks near certain to keep his deposit at last by getting 5% of the vote and is certain to get global media interest, especially once the World Cup ceases to be a distraction. Field View finds it hard to see this as good news for Brand UK, whatever it means for Reform.

Of course, Farage will “win”. Yet electoral victory will do little to resolve the questions hanging over him. He still doesn’t have a good or consistent explanation for the £5m gift from a Thai-based crypto billionaire. Police inquiries into other donations continue. Pressure will continue to be applied to the so-far mostly-covered fractures between Reform UK’s ambitious top team.

So, is this finally the end of Nigel Farage?

While the by-election itself will not provide us with an answer, the real test is whether Farage can once more reassert authority and maintain his momentum nationally against a backdrop by turn farcical and suspicious. If Reform is still riding high in the polls at Christmas, little will have changed as we barrel towards Burnham’s first big test at next May’s local elections.

If the Count manages to give Reform a proper scare in Clacton, rebuilding that credibility when Parliament returns in September may be a bridge too far even for Farage.