Labour Conference Special: Previewing Starmer’s Big Test

On the eve of Labour Conference, those both inside and outside the party are getting their expectation-setting in early.

For the Prime Minister, this is a key test after a rocky few months in office, with calls coming from all sides that delivery is not happening fast enough, division is spreading and nobody is communicating properly about any of the good things.

Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell will use conference as a platform to set out their deputy leadership pitch to members.

Eyes will be on Andy Burnham too. The so-called King of the North has spent the week making moves on a potential future leadership bid, met mainly by Starmer loyalists telling the press he's doing a great job as the Mayor of Manchester. Those less inclined to politeness call him out as disloyal, pointing out he's had two failed goes at trying to be leader.

Alongside the big speeches and array of fringe meetings, delegates in the main hall debate policy motions and those who are part of this side of conference take it very seriously. Some delegates will be complaining, loyalist organisers will be WhatsApping away to pass motions that support the leadership, and the unions will be trying to chart a course that puts pressure on the leadership while (mostly) maintaining a public face of collaboration.

Outside the hall, everything comes back to Keir Starmer. On the one hand, questions over the Prime Minister's future are a distraction. Starmer will still be the Prime Minister on Wednesday. For many there's nobody they would rather see taking on the global order, representing Britain and driving through the kind of reforming policies that won Labour a landslide victory last summer.

On the flip side, with an atmosphere this febrile it would be foolish to dismiss the trouble that Starmer and his government could be in. It’s impossible to ignore the drip-drip of MPs implying May’s huge local and devolved elections are a make-or-break test, with the Budget the next big milestone on the road to polling day. While Starmer is safe from party process – Labour is not like the Tories and MPs have no easy lever to remove him – the tornado of politics carries dangers.

With a first year that didn't go to plan, an economic situation that continues to frustrate, and a summer beset with sideshows and scandals, Starmer has attempted a reset but now needs to find a way to deliver – fast. If polls showing a collapse to just 140 Labour seats continue, pressure will mount inexorably.

This conference is his chance to bring absolute clarity to the next stage of the programme. Business and industry need long-term assurance to invest in the projects that the government wants to support. To avoid unnecessary distractions, nods will also need to be given to issues popular with the party faithful like a plan for removing the two-child benefit cap and building more homes.

Starmer's keynote speech on Tuesday afternoon and appearances on the fringe throughout conference will be carefully choreographed to balance all of these competing priorities, but will it be a standing ovation or a trip and fall for the PM?