Leadership on the Line - Badenoch battles on

The backdrop to Conservative Party Conference was bleak. Reform UK continues to crush the Conservatives in the polls, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats have shifted their attacks toward Nigel Farage, treating him as the de facto opposition. Attendance in the main Conference Hall was sparse for most shadow cabinet speeches, and business presence in the exhibition centre was notably thin, reinforcing the sense of a party settling into opposition as corporate money went to Liverpool.

Ironically, one of the most prominent presences at Conference was not a current politician but the ghostly presence of Margaret Thatcher, who was celebrated with a centenary birthday party and fashion exhibition. You would be forgiven for not noticing the Tories had been in government for quite a number of years since she was ousted from Downing Street in 1990.

But as the curtain falls on a subdued Party Conference in Manchester, Kemi Badenoch beat expectations as she set out her pitch to members. Her headlines? The abolition of Stamp Duty on main homes and the introduction of a new “golden rule”, which promises to ensure half of all savings made by a future Conservative Government would be put towards reducing the deficit, with the other half used for policies aimed at growing the economy.

All of this is due to be paid for by £47bn in savings outlined by shadow chancellor Mel Stride on Monday – deep cuts to the welfare budget, including axing disability benefits for some mental health conditions like anxiety, slashing the civil service and cutting foreign aid. The stamp duty cut alone will cost at least £4.5bn, while Badenoch also promised to move on the farm tax and on business rates. Her next challenge is persuading a sceptical public and media the sums add up.

What does one decent speech win the Tory leader? In the short term it likely puts rival Robert Jenrick, her shadow justice secretary, back in his box – despite WFW picking up whispers Jenrick’s wife is ready to fund a new leadership campaign this autumn, as soon as Badenoch’s protection from a vote of no confidence lifts in November.

Badenoch’s speech was genuinely well received as activists surged to their feet for at least five rousing standing ovations. Looking toward the Budget on November 26, it also gives Badenoch an argument – that public spending must fall dramatically to facilitate economic growth measures. With even Reform promoting welfare spending and nationalised industries, this is a real gap in the political market. While it is not without risk in a country which seemingly wants ever rising spending, the Tories have chosen to walk into it.

In the medium term, it’s remains much more difficult. With Farage’s Reform still surging, none of this will change overnight the reality the Tories are scrabbling over third place with the Liberal Democrats. Even if this new narrative stems the bleeding, Badenoch faces the risk of coming fourth nationally at the big local and devolved elections in May – a result which would likely be terminal.

And the long term? As WFW never ceases to remind people, the general election need not be held until July 2029. Predictions are a mug’s game.