Opportunity knocks for Kemi

The trouble with defining yourself in opposition is that you need something reasonably solid to oppose - and if you come up with anything good, the Government will often steal it for themselves.

For much of Badenoch’s leadership, that has meant Keir Starmer and his wobbly centrism. Notably, he has proved difficult to place neatly on the political spectrum, which made it hard for Badenoch to define the Conservative position against him.

Now, however, the picture looks rather clearer.

Burnham used his Labour Party Conference speech to plant his flag distinctly on the soft left. A new wave of public procurement and state expansion centred around social care part-funded by watering down the pension triple lock, water and creating GB Grid to compete with National Grid, gave voters, and his opponents, something tangible to argue about.

Meanwhile, Reform keeps moving right to shore up against Restore and more populist movements energised exclusively by immigration. Where before the centre and the right appeared crowded, suddenly, there is a gap.

If Badenoch plays this right, she has an opportunity to position the Conservatives as the fiscally sensible, limited-government, low-tax and low-spend option on the centre right. Crucially, that would mean looking not just towards Reform but turning to Liberal Democrat-facing seats across the South and Southeast that the Conservatives will ultimately need to win back to have a chance at the next election.

A year ago, Badenoch shored up her leadership with a crisp pitch based around spending cuts which would be use to reduce the deficit and scrap stamp duty. This year it is a different challenge.

As the Conservative faithful descend on Conference this weekend, Badenoch does not need to search particularly hard for a political opportunity. The question is whether she can take advantage of it.