Reform leads the charge as Britain’s politics splinters

The results are still coming in but the pattern is already clear: Reform is winning votes, seats and councils across the England, Labour is taking heavy punishment and the two-party system has broken.

This is not a simple swing from one party to another. Voters are scattering across five parties and the result is a political landscape where no one is quite in control. By the time the results are complete tomorrow, Reform will be the big national winner, with significant success for the SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales and potential Green wins in parts of London.

The Lib Dems have made modest gains in areas they already have and Field View expects the Greens to be doing better by the time the last vote is counted tomorrow.

But for Labour, the numbers are brutal. Even if not at the bottom end of expectations, Reform is cutting into its Leave-leaning, working-class base, while the Greens are taking votes from the Left. Around half of Labour’s losses appear to be going straight to Reform but the more telling pattern is that Labour has often done worse where the Greens have done well: they lost Wandsworth to the Tories because Green candidates cannibalised their vote.

For Keir Starmer’s Government, this is looking less like a wobble and more like a warning sign. Despite fears of a rebellion, Starmer insisted he will not “walk away” while his allies have made clear this is not the time to move against him. But this hasn’t done much to calm Westminster chatter or the nerves of Labour MPs worrying about their future prospects at the next election.

The main thing protecting him - possibly the only thing by Monday morning - is many MPs would prefer to replace Starmer with Andy Burnham, the Manchester Mayor who is not eligible to stand.

It’s not really any better for the Conservatives, Kemi Badenoch just has fewer internal enemies. The Tories have managed a partial fightback in London, regaining their “jewels in the crown” in Wandsworth and Westminster. But that will offer only limited comfort after losing the likes of Newcastle-under-Lyme and Suffolk to Reform, alongside hundreds of other seats across the country.

Reform, meanwhile, is doing what insurgent parties rarely manage - converting vote share into seat gains. As it did last year, it is making sweeping gains in both traditional Tory and Labour areas, conquering urban Wigan and leafy Essex on the same day. Across much of England that isn’t translating to power just yet because many councils elect only one third of members at a time - but that sets the stage for grabbing power in 12 months time, without any of the exposure of being in charge until then.

Overall, what these results suggest is not just another bad night for Labour or another grim set of numbers for the Conservatives - it is a political system continuing to break apart. Five parties are competing in a landscape that looks less settled than ever and the biggest winner so far is the one that has turned the disorder into momentum.

(Picture credit: Reform UK)