Starmer’s “Phase 2”

Returning from the summer recess, the PM declared he was launching “phase two” of his government and moving from stabilisation to delivery. Yet, as the old proverb goes, the best-laid plans often go awry, and a fortnight later, Keir Starmer is surrounded by smouldering political rubble.

The details need little recounting: first, Angela Rayner had to go as Deputy Prime Minister over £40,000 in underpaid stamp duty, triggering a sweeping reshuffle to reset the reset and a dangerous deputy leadership contest. A week later, Peter Mandelson was fired by Starmer from the Despatch Box after lurid new details about his (long well known) friendship with the late convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein emerged.

To do so once may be unfortunate. But twice in a matter of days now the PM has found himself defending colleagues only to give them the boot within hours. The twin scandals have raised real questions about Starmer’s own judgement and that of his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney. Some even mutter darkly about when the mess becomes existential for Starmer’s leadership.

Fourteen months into his government, Starmer was hardly overflowing with political capital to spend. Adrift in the polls behind an insurgent Reform, this was already going to be a tough autumn – starting with Donald Trump’s State Visit next week and building up to a hugely challenging second Budget on November 26.

Labour’s conference programme has apparently been pulped, as it featured an introduction from Rayner, and the fringe listings contain many ministers who are no longer in post. While it’s a cliché to say PMs need to give the speech of their lives at their party conference, it’s not a stretch to say Starmer has a huge amount to do when he addresses the Labour faithful in Liverpool in a couple of weeks.

Starmer appears to have been granted one wish. The deputy leadership election could have been a real distraction, particularly if a far-left candidate was on the ballot. However, it will now be a two-horse race between Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell, which shouldn’t set the world alight. Given the glum mood of the party membership, TWFW forecasts a low turnout and a kicking for the PM. Powell (sacked by Starmer just seven days ago) starts as the front-runner and could win if she takes a slightly more left-wing view on issues like welfare and Gaza.

It's hard to see what will happen next. But given Phase Two has blown up on the launch pad, Starmer will be wondering if it’s too soon to skip ahead to Phase Three.