Starmer has No Overall Control

A new mega poll on the London elections has laid bare the electoral plight Keir Starmer and the Labour Party is in. YouGov’s giant survey of nearly 50,000 people has tried to forecast who will top the vote in each of the 32 boroughs, trying to look through the emergence of five party politics.

It’s critical to be clear what the poll does not show as much as what it does: The survey tells us next to nothing about who will be running the borough councils. Lots of races are too close to call and the poll cannot model seat by seat results. Field View firmly expects No Overall Control to be the dominant outcome, perhaps even with the odd “zombie” council that ends up deadlocked when it comes to votes for council leaders in late May. Good fun for the election enthusiasts; more challenging for voters, developers and businesses.

Nevertheless, YouGov's findings are stark: Labour is projected to top the vote in just 15 boroughs, down from 21 in 2022. In citywide terms, Labour’s vote share is forecast to slump to roughly 26%. The beneficiaries are insurgent rivals on both sides: the Green Party is projected to surge to around 22% and even lead in long-time Labour strongholds like Hackney and Lambeth, while Reform UK is expected to break through in outer boroughs including Barking and Dagenham.

With the Prime Minister still mired in misery over his disastrous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, it is no exaggeration to say results which reflect this poll could finish him off. Labour is deeply reliant on the capital for support. Roughly 40% of party members live in London, giving the city substantial influence over internal mood and momentum. There is no escaping Starmer is a massive drag on the Labour vote after a catastrophic 22 months in Downing Street.

For months, speculation has swirled about Starmer’s long-term prospects. Rivals have been positioning themselves as would be successors and Andy Burnham, key amongst them, has once again been spotted campaigning in London, aiming to boost support ahead of a possible future leadership election.

The reality is that by the time the dust settles on May 8, the question inside Labour is likely to shift decisively: not whether Starmer’s leadership ends, but when.