Waiting for Sadiq

The race for City Hall is beginning to take shape, even if its most important participant has yet to confirm whether he is running.

Former Home and Foreign Secretary James Cleverly quit the Shadow Cabinet to seek the Conservative nomination last week, while Richmond Park MP Sarah Olney launched her bid to become the Liberal Democrat candidate yesterday. Both have also visited Field over the past year to speak with businesses, underlining their willingness to engage directly with London’s employers as their campaigns take shape.

But everything still turns on Lord Sadiq Khan. The three-term Mayor has said he will confirm next year whether he will stand again and, if he does, remains the man to beat. His appointment to the House of Lords in July has only fuelled speculation that he may choose not to seek another term, while giving him a potential route back into national politics after City Hall. Recent declarations from other candidates will only increase pressure on Khan to bring forward his announcement from next year to this year.

If Khan does step aside, Labour’s selection would become a major contest in its own right. Brent East MP Dawn Butler has made little secret of her interest, while former Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, 2020 deputy leadership hopeful Rosena Allin-Khan and former Housing Secretary Steve Reed are among the other names being discussed. Reed has also intervened on London’s future this week, warning in The Times that Burnham cannot make the rest of the country richer by making London poorer.

The Labour candidate would likely start any race as the favourite, but without Khan things look considerably more open. Savanta polling carried out after new Prime Minister Andy Burnham took office put Labour on 33% in the capital, with the Conservatives and Reform level on 18%, the Greens on 17% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.

Cleverly would have a credible route to victory if he can rebuild the Conservative coalition that once elected Boris Johnson, while Reform’s Laila Cunningham – a Westminster councillor and former CPS prosecutor who has been campaigning since the start of the year – will hope to break through in a city where her party has traditionally struggled.

The Greens, meanwhile, have yet to select a candidate, but made significant gains at Labour’s expense in the 2026 London local elections – enough to suggest they could play a major role in influencing the outcome of the race, or even mount a serious challenge of their own.

The prevailing expectation is that Khan will stand down when his current term ends in 2028. Until he confirms that, though, the shape of the race remains uncertain.