Who Could Replace Starmer?

Whilst the rumour mill has quietened slightly this week, beneath the surface Labour Party gossip remains fixed on one question: if Keir Starmer cannot rebuild his position in the polls and avoid disaster in May’s elections, who might replace him?

For those of us not trapped in the overexcited world of political WhatsApp groups - whether for Constituency Labour Parties, ministerial support groups or expat groups of former Labour staffers - it’s important to remember the hurdles which make a challenge hard. Anyone who wants to oust the PM must be an MP - sorry Andy Burnham. They need to secure 80 nominations from MPs who want a leadership ballot. In theory, it can only happen ahead of the annual party conference. And the incumbent is automatically on the ballot. Probably more important than all that, Labour has no culture of deposing its leaders, unlike the Tories.

However. Hot topic that it is, and, as we enter the season of goodwill, WFW likes nothing more than a good gossip. So who’s in the frame?

The names most frequently mentioned form a mixed bag: Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, former Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and rising star MHCLG Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh.

Wes Streeting would enter as a frontrunner. Charismatic, media-friendly and keen to claim progress on NHS waiting lists, he is widely viewed as leadership material. His recent denial of plotting – not helped by the mysterious “Wes for Leader” site – showed both his ambition and the risks of looking overeager. Streeting may though, be too far to the right for parts of the membership, despite carefully highlighted signals to the left in recent months, including on Gaza.

Shabana Mahmood, meanwhile, has carved out a reputation for toughness at the Home Office. Her firm line on immigration appeals to voters and her energetic slap down of Green MP Carla Denyer in the Commons when announcing the plans warmed the heart of Labour politicians in favour of winning - even if the plans were a hard sell to Labour’s left flank, who are much more agnostic on the compromises required to win. A Mahmood candidacy could split the party’s more centrist vote with Streeting – a dynamic that would likely hinder both of them.

Ed Miliband remains an old hand in politics. Experienced, straight talking and respected across the party, even if his net zero zealotry is becoming an ever tougher sell in public. Yet his defeat 10 years ago may make a second bid for PM feel like a backward step rather than renewal. His path relies on the membership deciding that steadiness and experience outweigh the desire for a fresh start.

Outside the Cabinet, Angela Rayner looks very much to be preparing a run notwithstanding the tax scandal which took her out of Government. Popular with much of the membership left she would have no difficulty meeting the MP’s threshold. Her challenge would lie in broadening her appeal beyond her core northern-loving supporters, as well as putting lingering questions from past tax-related mistakes fully behind her. But in a crowded race, her authenticity, energy and grassroots loyalty would be powerful strengths.

The ‘clean break’ case is embodied by Miatta Fahnbulleh, one of Labour’s fastest-rising 2024 intake MPs. As a junior minister in MHCLG with a background in policy and economics, she brings freshness, ambition, and no legacy baggage. Her challenge is straightforward…experience. A leap from junior minister to leader and Prime Minister would be dramatic, to say the least.

Taken together, it would be a fascinating contest. A leadership race isn’t on the cards yet, and may not be for some time, but the shape of Labour’s future remains an intriguing question for the wonk inside many of us.